# Fun with Expected Value

I just taught expected value in FST and really enjoyed it. The two main tasks I used were: The Carnival Candy Game and Dan Meyer’s Money Duck.

The Carnival Candy Game

You’re at a carnival and you get to pick one piece of candy from a bag. The color candy you draw determines how much money you win. I used starbursts, and I set it up like so:

The students didn’t win money; rather they won that many starbursts. (I had a different bag of starbursts for prize winnings because I made sure that the candy drawn was replaced each time to keep the probabilities the same for everyone.)

This was enjoyable because naturally all the kids wanted to pick the purple one. Not surprisingly, most picked pink, yellow, or red, but I have 45 FST students (two classes), and the 44th student did pick the purple one.

Then I asked them to calculate the expected value for their prize winnings when playing this game.

Then I said, suppose it costs \$5 to play this game. What does that mean for the player? What does it mean for the carnival game host?

Money Duck

Love the Money Duck. The students were very engaged by the idea of the money duck. I basically followed Dan Anderson’s lesson plan for this one. Like Dan’s students, and as I commented on his post, my students also wanted to determine the possible/impossible distributions based on what they saw in the video instead of in theory. I slightly fixed that in my second class by stopping the video after the first \$1 money duck, explaining that the video was made up, and stressing that we were interested in what is possible, not necessarily what the company actually does.

Like Dan, I had my students come up with company names, probabilities, and price. They then had to compute expected value and their profit. I also compiled the data in a spreadsheet, but didn’t really do anything with it, unfortunately. If I did it again I would like to have the students do some more sharing and comparing between groups.