I just taught expected value in FST and really enjoyed it. The two main tasks I used were: The Carnival Candy Game and Dan Meyer’s Money Duck.
The Carnival Candy Game
You’re at a carnival and you get to pick one piece of candy from a bag. The color candy you draw determines how much money you win. I used starbursts, and I set it up like so:
The students didn’t win money; rather they won that many starbursts. (I had a different bag of starbursts for prize winnings because I made sure that the candy drawn was replaced each time to keep the probabilities the same for everyone.)
This was enjoyable because naturally all the kids wanted to pick the purple one. Not surprisingly, most picked pink, yellow, or red, but I have 45 FST students (two classes), and the 44th student did pick the purple one.
Then I asked them to calculate the expected value for their prize winnings when playing this game.
Then I said, suppose it costs $5 to play this game. What does that mean for the player? What does it mean for the carnival game host?
Love the Money Duck. The students were very engaged by the idea of the money duck. I basically followed Dan Anderson’s lesson plan for this one. Like Dan’s students, and as I commented on his post, my students also wanted to determine the possible/impossible distributions based on what they saw in the video instead of in theory. I slightly fixed that in my second class by stopping the video after the first $1 money duck, explaining that the video was made up, and stressing that we were interested in what is possible, not necessarily what the company actually does.
Like Dan, I had my students come up with company names, probabilities, and price. They then had to compute expected value and their profit. I also compiled the data in a spreadsheet, but didn’t really do anything with it, unfortunately. If I did it again I would like to have the students do some more sharing and comparing between groups.
I definitely recommend both tasks.
And then things got even better. Today was the grand opening of a new Cabela’s nearby my school, so several of my male seniors told me how they all skipped class this morning (well, some of them probably had open campus 1st period… I hope) to get in line at the new store because the first 500 customers received a gift card up to $500. One of them said, “But Ms. Cummins, they didn’t tell us how many were for $500″. It turned out that they all got $10 gift cards except for one who got a $25. It was perfect. I told them I was going to write a test question about that.